Writing in India’s The Telegraph, Kanwal Sibal, a member of EWI’s Board of Directors and a former Indian Foreign Secretary, suggests that the challenges in Afghanistan are immense, and the factor most likely to determine an exit strategy may be internal politics in the U.S.

Sibal outlines many of the obstacles the U.S. and NATO must overcome to ensure a sfe exit from Afghanistan: “the mountainous terrain, the isolated valleys, the tribal social structure and the generally violent culture of the country. Historical experience also cautions against a successful external intervention. Above all, the presence of safe havens for the insurgents across the border in Pakistan presents a challenge almost impossible to overcome without violating the sovereignty of that country.”

Afghanistan needs time and good governance, Sibal suggests, but time is running out and governance is difficult to deliver without well-trained Afghan military and police forces. Moreover, President Hamid Karzai’s legitimacy is in question, a drawback for which Sibal blames the West. “It is Karzai’s Western sponsors who have discredited him with their exaggerated demands for observance of high electoral standards in a country with no experience of democracy,” he writes

Sibal also points to the challenges of maintaining the strained coalition of forces in Afghanistan. “At times it is argued that the US and others are conducting operations in Afghanistan on behalf of the international community,” he suggests, “and others, especially regional countries, ought to share their part of the burden.” Finally, Sibal argues that any strategy in Afghanistan must determine whether its target is Al Qaeda or the Taliban.

He concludes: “Any hasty retreat from Afghanistan will only compound the problem for the US. Obama will have to eventually decide whether staying the course in Afghanistan in the larger national interest should override his personal interest in getting re-elected in 2012. To get a second term he has to show success on the ground by 2011, as otherwise he could end up as a one-time president. That might ultimately prove the most decisive factor in U.S. policy.

Click here to read Sibal's article in the Telegraph