Sergey Rogov, head of the Institute of U.S.A. and Canada Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, outlined prospects for a new NATO-Russia relationship at EWI’s offices in New York. Addressing leading Russia and foreign policy experts in New York and in Brussels via videoconference, Rogov outlined several areas of possible collaboration between Russia and NATO and stumbling blocks that could stand in the way.

Rogov suggested that Russia and NATO can work much more closely on several fronts including counterterrorism and counternarcotics in Afghanistan, ballistic missile defense, nuclear nonproliferation, maritime security and air and space projects. Russia has already become a de facto NATO ally, he argued, by allowing some NATO members to use Russian airspace for operations in Afghanistan.

At the same time, however, Rogov suggested that Russia and NATO must further institutionalize their relationship. NATO tends to present its decisions to Russia as faits accompli, he said, and there is significant room for joint decision-making mechanisms. He added that there might be some benefits to a formal relationship between NATO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the alliance of a number of former Soviet states. He finds encouragement in similar suggestions for leading Western voices such as Zbigniew Brzezinski, who recently published an article calling for formal ties between NATO and the CSTO (although Brzezinski conditions these ties on Russia’s acceptance of Georgia and Ukraine’s accession into NATO, a view Rogov doesn’t share.)

Despite these opportunities for closer cooperation, Rogov sees a number of challenges both sides must overcome. Among the irritants to Russia, he named the United States’ development of increasingly potent missiles that can intercept missiles launched from Russia’s interior.  The Conventional Forces in Europe treaty is another sticking point; Rogov considers the CFE-treaty limitations on Russia’s flank antiquated, anomalous and unfair – a “twisted legacy of the Cold War.” Other thorny issues include Georgia and energy pipeline geopolitics.

Perhaps most fundamentally, neither the United States nor Russia has moved beyond the Cold War-era construct of “mutually assured destruction,” he said, calling for a “fundamental revolution” in strategic thinking.

Overall, Rogov was heartened by recent improvements in Russia-NATO relations. The relationship reached its “lowest point” in modern memory during the George W. Bush presidency, he said, with the enlargement of NATO into Warsaw Pact countries and the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.  He sees an improvement under the Obama administration. The atmosphere has become calmer, and both sides have showed renewed willingness to work together on such pressing issues as the Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty and Afghanistan. Perhaps most significant is the administration’s decision to reverse course on the deployment of a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Rogov spoke on the record, but in a personal capacity.  EWI CEO John E. Mroz chaired the session.

Click here to download Rogov's background paper on the topic (90K PDF)