On Thursday, June 25, EWI’s Preventive Diplomacy Initiatives hosted the fourth installment of the policy dialogue series, Alternative Futures for Afghanistan and the Stability of Southwest Asia: Improving Regional Cooperation on Water in Brussels. The session focused on the Helmand River Basin, shared between Afghanistan and Iran, and the Harirud and Murghab River Basins, which are also shared with Turkmenistan. Participants considered challenges to cooperative management of these water sources and proposed strategies to overcome these challenges.

This was the final session in a four-part dialogue series convened with the support of Gerda Henkel Stiftung and EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention and Human Security.

The main issue addressed at the meeting, chaired by EWI’s Matthew King, was the role scientific and technical cooperation can play in overcoming political obstacles.

Scientific Data – Challenge and Opportunity

“Can diplomacy turn a cause for concern into a purpose for joint collaboration?” one participant asked. As demand for water in the region increases and supply decreases, the challenge will be to convert the threat of water shortages into opportunities for regional cooperation.

According to the discussion’s participants, the rate of decline of water resources is disturbing. Jean Palmer-Moloney of NASA’s Ames Research Centre exhibited the dramatic changes in the Helmand Basin since the late 1970s. She used satellite imagery data to demonstrate the disappearance of vegetation and groundwater. She also outlined the implications of these changes, particularly for the threatened Sistan wetlands and the population that relies on them. As an example, she cited increasing public health concerns, respiratory disease in particular, as drier conditions drive local populations from the area.

Palmer-Moloney stressed that lack of data is a major hindrance to policy development on water; much of the hydrological data on Afghanistan was collected between 1945 and 1978.

Anna Tengberg, the UNDP’s Regional Technical Advisor for International Waters, said the Helmand Basin “faces an environmental crisis comparable to the Aral Sea disaster if nothing is done.” She suggested that technical cooperation on water management and data collection can strengthen institutions and reinforce national inter-ministry capacities in Afghanistan and Iran. But despite these benefits, a lack of trust and political sensitivities around shared water resources can hamper efforts to implement a joint commission on the Sistan wetlands.

Regional Possibilities

Several participants agreed that the benefits of regional and international cooperation can help overcome the political stalemate. Unfortunately, there has been little coordination of local efforts and even fewer efforts to create a comprehensive regional approach. The lack of coordination in the international community is also a major issue. A representative from the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that while the international community is starting to “zoom out” towards a regional approach, donors have not yet developed any comprehensive regional initiatives.

A representative from NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division recognized the potential of scientific cooperation to foster political cooperation, pointing to similar efforts in the South Caucasus. UNDP’s Tengberg also pointed to similar, successful efforts in other parts of the world. Participants suggested, however, that the major obstacle in the Sistan Basin is the lack of trust between Afghanistan and Iran.

For a number of reasons, it has been difficult to generate the trust necessary to make such efforts work in Central Asia. The international community must avoid perceptions of its development efforts in the region being in favour of one stakeholder to the detriment of another. A regional perspective with a coordinated donor approach might alleviate these shortcomings and help demonstrate that regional cooperation can lead to win-win solutions for all stakeholders.

“We need to see the regional possibilities,” said a representative from the Embassy of Tajikistan, encouraging efforts to enhance regional knowledge and data collection.

The Knowledge Gap

Throughout this dialogue series, the participants have emphasized a significant need in Afghanistan for increased scientific knowledge and technical capacity. The gaps in knowledge and capacity are even more pronounced at the local level. Afghanistan, its neighbors and the international community must overcome these gaps if policy decisions in Kabul are to have any impact.

Participants further noted that it is difficult to find value in regional treaties if there is no local capacity to implement them. “It is one thing for lawyers to negotiate an international agreement,” said one participant. “It is quite another for people in rural areas to implement them effectively.”

Next Steps

This was the final session of the policy dialogue series, which was initiated in cooperation with EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention and Human Security.

EWI’s Preventive Diplomacy Initiatives will publish a policy report of the series later in the year. We will disseminate the publication to key officials, decision-makers and experts as part of a new strategy for regional security and as a contribution to an exit strategy for the international community.