Danila Bochkarev writes that the Russia-China energy deal reflects uncertainty about the natural gas trade in Europe, and that the EU and China may find themselves competing for Russian oil.

Writing in European Voice, Bochkarev highlights Russia’s efforts to “diversify its customer base” and expand its presence in North America and Asia. “This increased interest in non-European customers highlights the level of uncertainty at the heart of Russia's energy relationship with Europe – an uncertainty largely based on question marks about the future level of European demand,” he writes.

Bochkarev suggests that some of Russia’s fears about its gas exports are due to short-term factors such as the economic downturn. But he adds that other factors, such as a transition to a low-carbon economy and Europe’s diversification of its energy sources, will have longer-term adverse effects. “If the EU's 20/20/20 goals and related energy-saving measures are fully implemented, the bloc's total gas consumption in 2020 could be 16% lower than it was in 2008,” he writes, citing a study by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

According to Bochkarev, these fears have led Russian leaders to call for more coordination between energy importers and exporters. “Such cooperation requires trust," he concludes. "It also suggests a need for global rules. But trust is notably lacking in the EU-Russian energy relationship and their protracted disputes over whether the Energy Charter Treaty, which Russia has refused to ratify, should serve as the basis of energy co-operation suggests that they will be unable to agree on rules for their relationship for some time.“

Click here to read Bochkarev’s article in European Voice.