In his fortnightly column on livemint.com, W. Pal Sidhu outlines possible outcomes in Afghanistan and offers recommendations for India to ensure its security in each scenario.

Sidhu sees three possible scenarios for the endgame in Afghanistan. “One scenario predicts the outright defeat of the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine and the strengthening of the Karzai government,” he writes. “Another scenario envisages a militarily weakened, but a politically strong Taliban, which will have to be accommodated in any post-withdrawal political arrangement. Yet another unlikely scenario forecasts the outright defeat of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force and the collapse of the Karzai government.”

India must prepare for each of these options, he suggests. The first scenario is best for India, but it is not guaranteed. Further India cannot alone achieve such an outcome, either by deploying its own troops in Afghanistan or by reviving the Northern Alliance. “While the latter possibility appears to have been discussed with Putin during his recent visit, a resurgent Northern Alliance will inevitably lead to another Afghan civil war,” he writes. “Such a war would not only prolong the sufferings of the ordinary Afghans, it would also destroy the vital infrastructure and other development schemes that India has so painstakingly built over the past decade.”

He continues: “On the other hand, it is worth remembering that even when the Taliban regime controlled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, it had a limited impact on India’s strategic national interests. Though Kashmir saw an upsurge in terrorist attacks by groups with clear links to the Taliban … India was able to deal with this adverse scenario.”

Sidhu proposes a “three-pronged approach” to ensure its security: “First, it should insulate its territory, particularly Kashmir, from any terrorist activities that might be exported out of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Second, reach a binding counterterrorism agreement with Islamabad and Kabul to ensure that Pakistani and Afghan territories, individual or institutions are not involved in launching terrorist attacks against India.”

Finally, Sidhu argues that India’s best bet is a sustained reconciliation process in Afghanistan. “Given its impending entry onto the UN Security Council, India should also facilitate a UN-led international reconciliation in Afghanistan so that the choice is not confined to either a Taliban-led regime or a civil war,” he writes. “This approach would not only ensure India’s strategic interests and security, it would also ensure the security and prosperity of the Afghan people. It would also be in keeping with New Delhi’s aspiration to be recognized as a responsible emerging regional and global power.”

Click here to read Sidhu’s column on livemint.com.