The subject of countless studies, models and predictions -- and some debate, it is now emerging visible for all to witness. The world's ice and glaciers are melting: The north pole, Antarctica, the Himalayas, Kilimanjaro, Alaska, Andes.
It is inexorable and it will become progressively worse.
Everyone understands that climate change creates a network of interrelated causes and effects; of shortages and dislocations: drought, desertification, loss of arable land, famine, ocean acidification and infertility, fresh water shortages, rising sea levels, mass dislocation.
Failures in any of these critical areas will lead to a cascading series of disasters, compounding the problems, putting greater strain on other already weakened sectors. Much as the recent economic meltdown led to a series of escalating problems, so climate meltdown will lead to poverty, famine, dislocation, mass migration -- all on a very large scale. But, unlike the financial crisis, these problems, when they happen, cannot be remedied by a bailout. Hundreds of millions, billions, of desperate people are easy targets for ideological persuasion. Breakdown in one geopolitical area will overflow and be exported locally, then globally. Geopolitical disaster on a grand scale. Failed states will multiply, eventually leading to failed continents, and ultimately to a failed planet.
Until recently climate and environment have not been considered matters of National Security. This must be rethought, and it must be understood that climate is perhaps THE most important security issue worldwide. It threatens to become the driving force behind mass migrations, invasions, territorial and resource conflicts: Food, fresh water, land, fuel.
When desperate populations demand solutions, desperate leaders will take desperate actions.
How exactly the final disputes will unfold is unclear, but unrestrained global conflict becomes perilously plausible.
The sooner the world acts, the sooner these problems can be curtailed, forestalled, avoided.
In the short term, there seems little hope of avoiding the immediate effects that are already underway. Just as the inertia of a great ship prevents immediate stop, so short term climate effects over the next 10 to 20 years cannot be prevented. We must deal with them.
The First Mandate of Climate Security is that we must be prepared to cope with these near term unavoidable effects.
The Second Mandate of Climate Security must be to arrest the factors causing further acceleration.
Over the past century the world has been releasing into the atmosphere carbon which had been sequestered over a period of hundreds of millions of years. We have been deforesting the continents and exhausting the oceans. Our civilization has now become dependent on this. The livelihood and daily life of almost every modern person relies on the continued use of activities that release ancient carbon and other green house gases: fossil fuels, modern agriculture and construction methods.
If the infrastructure on which civilization depends is unsustainable, then sooner or later it must collapse. Changing this dependence requires changing the world's most fundamental sectors: energy, agriculture, construction.
One hopes we can manage to rise to the First Mandate of Climate Security and survive the effects which are already underway -- however we must stop further acceleration as soon as possible, otherwise our children and grandchildren will face a situation beyond remedy.
We must face these challenges NOW -- not eventually or someday. All nations must face this together, as no one will be insulated or protected. The sooner these are corrected, the less damage will accumulate. The longer we wait, the more frail will become the world's economies to implement and deal with necessary solutions.
All sectors must engage in this great shift: political leaders, the public, the private sectors, technologists, industry, energy, construction, agriculture. Not surprisingly, effecting change and implementing policies to provide correction is proving exceptionally difficult. The outcome of Copenhagen was a lamentable disappointment.
The military, responsible for national security, must not only consider the looming short range problems, but must simultaneously look through the lens of long range planning with the understanding that the climate struggle cannot possibly be won if it is allowed to escalate. Respected for its leadership, foresight, and long range planning, the military could become an effective and strategic voice in this process, leading the other sectors into action. This is starting to happen: in recent years institutions and think tanks in all parts of the world are identifying the impact of climate change on National Security for all nations.
In this ever changing world, to meet these new, global, interrelated, climate driven challenges, the world's militaries must become environmentalists.
EWI is working to bring together parties from a wide variety of sectors and geographies to undertake creative solutions to this most important problem.
Addison Fischer is Chairman and Co-Founder of Planet Heritage Foundation and a member of the EastWest Institute's Board of Directors.
EWI is an outstanding group of personalities united by a global vision of a changed world.
Emil Constantinescu
Former President of Romania
The EastWest Institute is an international, non-partisan, not-for profit policy organization focused on confronting critical challenges that endanger peace.
Posted By: Addison Fischer
Date: February 26, 2010
Climate Change is happening.
The subject of countless studies, models and predictions -- and some debate, it is now emerging visible for all to witness. The world's ice and glaciers are melting: The north pole, Antarctica, the Himalayas, Kilimanjaro, Alaska, Andes.
It is inexorable and it will become progressively worse.
Everyone understands that climate change creates a network of interrelated causes and effects; of shortages and dislocations: drought, desertification, loss of arable land, famine, ocean acidification and infertility, fresh water shortages, rising sea levels, mass dislocation.
Failures in any of these critical areas will lead to a cascading series of disasters, compounding the problems, putting greater strain on other already weakened sectors. Much as the recent economic meltdown led to a series of escalating problems, so climate meltdown will lead to poverty, famine, dislocation, mass migration -- all on a very large scale. But, unlike the financial crisis, these problems, when they happen, cannot be remedied by a bailout. Hundreds of millions, billions, of desperate people are easy targets for ideological persuasion. Breakdown in one geopolitical area will overflow and be exported locally, then globally. Geopolitical disaster on a grand scale. Failed states will multiply, eventually leading to failed continents, and ultimately to a failed planet.
Until recently climate and environment have not been considered matters of National Security. This must be rethought, and it must be understood that climate is perhaps THE most important security issue worldwide. It threatens to become the driving force behind mass migrations, invasions, territorial and resource conflicts: Food, fresh water, land, fuel.
When desperate populations demand solutions, desperate leaders will take desperate actions.
How exactly the final disputes will unfold is unclear, but unrestrained global conflict becomes perilously plausible.
The sooner the world acts, the sooner these problems can be curtailed, forestalled, avoided.
In the short term, there seems little hope of avoiding the immediate effects that are already underway. Just as the inertia of a great ship prevents immediate stop, so short term climate effects over the next 10 to 20 years cannot be prevented. We must deal with them.
The First Mandate of Climate Security is that we must be prepared to cope with these near term unavoidable effects.
The Second Mandate of Climate Security must be to arrest the factors causing further acceleration.
Over the past century the world has been releasing into the atmosphere carbon which had been sequestered over a period of hundreds of millions of years. We have been deforesting the continents and exhausting the oceans. Our civilization has now become dependent on this. The livelihood and daily life of almost every modern person relies on the continued use of activities that release ancient carbon and other green house gases: fossil fuels, modern agriculture and construction methods.
If the infrastructure on which civilization depends is unsustainable, then sooner or later it must collapse. Changing this dependence requires changing the world's most fundamental sectors: energy, agriculture, construction.
One hopes we can manage to rise to the First Mandate of Climate Security and survive the effects which are already underway -- however we must stop further acceleration as soon as possible, otherwise our children and grandchildren will face a situation beyond remedy.
We must face these challenges NOW -- not eventually or someday. All nations must face this together, as no one will be insulated or protected. The sooner these are corrected, the less damage will accumulate. The longer we wait, the more frail will become the world's economies to implement and deal with necessary solutions.
All sectors must engage in this great shift: political leaders, the public, the private sectors, technologists, industry, energy, construction, agriculture. Not surprisingly, effecting change and implementing policies to provide correction is proving exceptionally difficult. The outcome of Copenhagen was a lamentable disappointment.
The military, responsible for national security, must not only consider the looming short range problems, but must simultaneously look through the lens of long range planning with the understanding that the climate struggle cannot possibly be won if it is allowed to escalate. Respected for its leadership, foresight, and long range planning, the military could become an effective and strategic voice in this process, leading the other sectors into action. This is starting to happen: in recent years institutions and think tanks in all parts of the world are identifying the impact of climate change on National Security for all nations.
In this ever changing world, to meet these new, global, interrelated, climate driven challenges, the world's militaries must become environmentalists.
EWI is working to bring together parties from a wide variety of sectors and geographies to undertake creative solutions to this most important problem.
Addison Fischer is Chairman and Co-Founder of Planet Heritage Foundation and a member of the EastWest Institute's Board of Directors.