Geopolitics expert Charles Emmerson discussed his new book, The Future History of the Arctic, at EWI’s Speaker Series and outlined the increasing strategic, economic and environmental importance of the Arctic.

With Arctic temperatures rising faster than anywhere else on the planet, summers in the Arctic may soon be ice free. Some believe that Arctic ice may disappear by 2030; others suggest it could melt as soon as 2013.

Emmerson suggests that as this ice melts, the Arctic is becoming the world’s newest geopolitical flashpoint. The five major regional players, the U.S., Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway – also known as the A5 – are starting to vie for access and control the territory’s natural resources and shipping routes. Legal structures can help determine the course of such competition, but it is unclear how they apply to the Arctic. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, for example, can address some territorial concerns. But the United States has not ratified the convention and is unlikely to do so any time soon. Some suggest that existing laws and treaties can resolve potential conflicts; others maintain that the Arctic is a ‘free for all’.

Russia has the capacity to control the Arctic in a way most other Arctic nations do not. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev described the Arctic as a strategic resource space for Russia, indicating an eagerness to develop its resources. Russia is considering the creation of a floating pipeline to develop Arctic energy fields, a strategic necessity for Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant.

Emmerson doesn’t see a Russia-U.S. conflict on the energy front.  While Russia is eager to develop Arctic resources, the best way for the U.S. to ensure energy security is by improving energy efficiency, not by exploiting Arctic resources.

Interest in the Arctic has expanded well beyond the A5. The European Union is entering the fray, motivated in part by Iceland’s possible accession. It has tried to join the Arctic Council, but Arctic countries have kept it out, preferring to keep deliberations to themselves. Meanwhile, emerging powers such as China and India are starting to see the region as a strategic priority. Although trans-polar shipping is unlikely in the immediate future, China, the world’s largest importer and exporter, may want to ensure its access to Russian shipping routes. Greenland, long governed by Denmark, could become independent as natural resources become available after the ice melts.

As A5 countries increase surveillance and their military presence in the region, Emmerson suggests that they must establish clear protocols to signal intent and prevent misunderstandings. The Arctic can present opportunities for mutual benefit such as new shipping routes and resources. But the international community must quickly develop the institutions and infrastructure to deal with disputes and make the best of these opportunities.

Charles Emmerson has been a Global Leadership Fellow and an Associate Director of the World Economic Forum, heading the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Network and acting as their resident geopolitical specialist. Formerly, he worked for the International Crisis Group, a foreign policy think tank. He graduated top of his class from Oxford University, and, as a recipient of an Entente Cordiale scholarship, studied international relations and international public law at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. He now lives in London where he works as a writer and adviser on international affairs.